The Ugandan Trial Everyone Should Be Watching
As Dr. Kizza Besigye returns to court this week on treason charges, the high-profile case of Uganda’s main opposition leader raises questions about Uganda’s political future ahead of the 2026 elections.
People hold portraits of Kizza Besigye while he addresses supporters during an election rally in Kampala on February 10, 2016.
Ugandan opposition figure Dr. Kizza Besigye is once again in the spotlight. And like many times before, it is from a prison cell.
Indeed, the longtime critic of President Yoweri Museveni and four-time presidential candidate is no stranger to arrests. But this latest case is different. With treason charges that carry the death penalty and a cross-border abduction that has raised serious legal and political questions, the trial's implications reach far beyond one man. It could shape the future of civil liberties, judicial independence, and opposition politics as Uganda heads toward the 2026 elections.
"The idea is to keep him within visibility but not within effectiveness," Angelo Izama, a political analyst, tells OkayAfrica. "That you're still reminded that he's around, but he's not mounting a credible threat to the state."
Besigye and his aide, Obeid Lutale, stand accused of conspiring to overthrow the government. Their ordeal began in November 2024 with a controversial abduction in neighboring Kenya. Seized without a formal extradition process, Besigye was transported across the border into Uganda and arraigned before a military court.
In protest, Besigye launched a hunger strike, refusing food for weeks to draw attention to his treatment. Only after Uganda's Supreme Court ruled in January that military trials of civilians are unconstitutional did the authorities move the case to a civilian court. With that ruling, the hunger strike came to an end.
Besigye is expected in court again this week. Some believe he may be granted bail and allowed to resume his familiar role as an opposition figure as Uganda heads into a tense election cycle. Others aren't so sure.
Here's why this trial matters inside Uganda, and far beyond its borders:
Besigye's trial could define Uganda's 2026 election
This trial carries deeper implications for many Ugandans because it could dominate the upcoming election cycle. Besigye is widely expected to lead the opposition against Museveni, who has held power since 1986.
Because "there hasn't been much change in the tenure and quality of political conversation" in Uganda since 2006, there are few substantive issues likely to take center stage on the ballot, says Izama. Instead, he suggests that if Besigye remains behind bars, his detention could become the defining issue of the election.
His party, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) — Uganda's largest opposition movement — has struggled to mount a unified strategy in his absence.
Young Ugandans are watching and losing faith
Izama points out that Uganda is a very young country, with fewer than 18 percent of the population over the age of 50. Many Ugandans between 18 and 40 are highly active online, deeply connected, and visibly engaged with political content. These are clear signs that they care about governance and accountability.
However, because political dynamics haven't changed meaningfully in the last two decades, current political processes fail to address substantive issues like unemployment and infrastructure.
"You've got a growing economy, but governance is at an all-time low for political reasons," Izama says. Instead of debate about policy or vision, the public sphere is dominated by spectacle and survival. As a result, young people are politically aware but increasingly disenchanted with the political process.
Cross-border abduction raises regional red flags
Besigye's abduction in Nairobi, carried out without transparency or legal process, should have triggered diplomatic concern across East Africa. Instead, it revealed the ease with which repression can cross borders.
Reports suggest that Besigye was monitored when he boarded a flight in Entebbe. Kenyan officials deny complicity in his detention, while Ugandan authorities claim their Kenyan counterparts were fully informed through intelligence-sharing efforts.
For the East African Community, the silence has been profound. Without accountability, political impunity in one country could easily influence others.
The question of transition
One of the most pressing issues in Ugandan politics is the question of transition. "The elephant in the room for Uganda is whether or not there will be a peaceful transition... especially from Museveni, who is the godfather of this political system," says Izama. "Whether or not the next person to take over from him will do so under peaceful circumstances."
Museveni is one of the world's longest-serving leaders, and Besigye has long represented the face of opposition to his rule. The lack of generational shift within the ruling party and the opposition has left Uganda with few credible political alternatives.
